Missouri State makes its first bowl appearance Thursday when they take the gridiron against Arkansas State in the Xbox Bowl. Lets dive into each school on both sides of the ball and see if the numbers and statistics point us towards a wager or two.
Game Details and How to Watch Arkansas State vs. Missouri State
- Date: Saturday, December 18, 2025
- Time: 9:00PM Eastern
- Site: Ford Center at The Star
- City: Frisco, TX
- TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Game Odds: Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
The latest odds as of Saturday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Missouri State Bears (-102), Arkansas State Red Wolves (-118)
- Spread: Arkansas State -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 56.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Head Coach: Butch Jones
2025 Record: 6-6 (5-3)
Offense Ranking: 97
Defense Ranking: 106
Strength of Schedule: 122
Arkansas State slogged through a volatile 6–6 season that largely tracked its underlying profile, finishing with 5.0 second-order wins and an SP+ ranking of 105 that underscored how thin the margin was most weeks. Butch Jones’ team struggled to find consistency early, opening Sun Belt play with four losses in five games before steadying itself in October with wins over Texas State, South Alabama, Georgia Southern, and Troy. The Red Wolves’ offense was methodical but limited, ranking near the bottom nationally in explosiveness and finishing drives, which made sustained success difficult despite a relatively high play volume. Defensively, Arkansas State showed flashes—particularly in pass rush and situational fourth-down defense—but too often gave up efficiency and big plays that erased any margin for error. In the end, bowl eligibility came more from grit and late-season resilience than dominance, with the underlying metrics suggesting a team still searching for an identity under Jones.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves Offense
Arkansas State’s offense was volume-driven but inefficient, finishing 97th in Offensive SP+ (97th) while averaging a blazing 75.1 plays per game (4th), but just 5.12 yards per play (107th) and 1.83 points per drive (102nd). The Red Wolves struggled to stay on schedule, posting a 42.2% success rate (73rd) and a negative explosiveness profile, with only 5.2% of plays gaining 20+ yards (118th). The run game lacked punch, averaging 4.3 yards per carry (118th) with a rushing success rate of 40.5% (104th), forcing the offense into too many long-yardage situations. Even when Arkansas State reached scoring territory, drives too often stalled, as reflected by a red-zone touchdown rate of 53.7% (109th) that kept the unit from capitalizing on its tempo and play volume.
The Arkansas State Red Wolves Defense
Arkansas State’s defense struggled to find consistency, finishing 106th in Defensive SP+ (106th) while allowing 6.11 yards per play (114th) and 2.19 points per drive (84th). The Red Wolves were vulnerable to sustained efficiency, giving up a 45.0% success rate (121st) while ranking poorly against both the run (45.4% rushing success rate allowed, 103rd) and the pass (46.7% passing success rate allowed, 125th). There were flashes of disruption up front, as Arkansas State posted an excellent sack rate per dropback (7.3%, 25th) and a respectable pressure rate (32.3%, 87th), but those moments rarely came in bunches. Overall, too many missed tackles and explosive breakdowns left the defense constantly stressed, forcing the margin for error to remain razor thin throughout the season.
Missouri State Bears
Head Coach: Ryan Beard
2025 Record: 7-5 (5-3)
Offense Ranking: 80
Defense Ranking: 110
Strength of Schedule: 115
Missouri State pieced together a gritty 7–5 season that slightly outperformed its underlying profile, finishing with 6.7 second-order wins and an SP+ ranking of 99th in its inaugural CUSA campaign. Ryan Beard’s team absorbed some early blows—including lopsided losses to USC and SMU—but stabilized in conference play by winning six of eight games, often grinding out narrow victories rather than overwhelming opponents. The Bears’ offense showed flashes of explosiveness and balance but struggled with down-to-down efficiency, leaving little margin when drives stalled or penalties piled up. Defensively, Missouri State was competitive but inconsistent, frequently bending between the 20s and relying on situational stops rather than sustained dominance. In the end, bowl eligibility was earned through resilience and late-season execution, with the metrics pointing to a solid but unspectacular team that lived on the edge most weeks.
The Missouri State Bears Offense
Missouri State’s offense leaned on explosiveness more than consistency, finishing 80th in Offensive SP+ (80th) while averaging 6.03 yards per play (38th) and 2.10 points per drive (81st). The Bears strike quickly, ranking Top 15 in plays gaining 20+ yards (8.6%, 14th) and second nationally in yards per successful play (14.5, 2nd), but those splash plays were often offset by negative snaps. Down-to-down efficiency was a major issue, as Missouri State posted a 39.2% success rate (109th) and saw 37.7% of plays gain zero or negative yards (130th). That boom-or-bust profile made sustained drives difficult and kept the offense hovering around league average despite legitimate big-play upside.
The Missouri State Bears Defense
Missouri State’s defense was serviceable but uneven, finishing 110th in Defensive SP+ (110th) while allowing 5.87 yards per play (97th) and 2.26 points per drive (90th). The Bears were better at limiting true back-breaking explosives—holding opponents to 6.5% of plays gaining 20+ yards (76th) and just 12.9% of completions going for 20+ yards (27th)—but too many steady gains piled up. Down-to-down efficiency was an issue, as Missouri State allowed a 43.4% success rate (94th) and struggled to consistently get off the field in the red zone (67.5% TD rate allowed, 109th). Without a reliable pass rush to tilt situations (pressure rate 29.9%, 116th; sack rate 5.1%, 95th), the defense often bent until the margin finally broke.
Arkansas State and Missouri State: Team Stats and Betting Trends
- The OVER has cashed 4 times in both Arkansas State (4-8) and Missouri State’s (4-8) 12 games
- Missouri State is 7-5 ATS this season
- Arkansas State is 8-4 ATS this season
Rotoworld Best Bets
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Corey Rucker OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards
Arkansas State WR Corey Rucker is a legitimate program legend who has earned at least 10 targets in 7 of his last 8 games for the Red Wolves. Arkansas State throws at one of the highest rates in the country, ranking 123rd in standard downs pass rate while playing at the 13th quickest pace. I think Rucker gets 12+ targets and challenges the 100-yard barrier which he crossed four times in the last 7 games. Accordingly, I’m backing Rucker to go Over 76.5 Receiving yards vs. the Bears.
****
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best Bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Arkansas State and Missouri State
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Arkansas State on the Moneyline.
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play ATS on Arkansas State +1.5.
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 54.5.
Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest college football betting news and analysis.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)